The debate in Europe over what policies the debt ridden countries should pursue is being falsely constructed as a choice between austerity and growth. Not only is there another, more appropriate alternative, but these two alternatives themselves are not properly
European Central Bank
What causes hyperinflations and why we have not seen one yet: A forensic examination of dead currencies
Please, click here to read this article in pdf format:Â December 18 2012 As anticipated in my previous letter, today I want to discuss the topic of high or hyperinflation: What triggers it? Is there a common feature in hyperinflations that
The Mess the Bank Made… and Denies
Back in April, I reviewed a document called the “Financial System Reviewâ€, published semi-annually by the Bank of Canada. Due to the dire warnings contained therein, I thought it necessary to produce a more user-friendly summary of the information the
Anatomy of the End Game
(click here to read this article in pdf format: November 22 2012) About a month ago, in the third-quarter report of a Canadian global macro fund, its strategist made the interesting observation that “…Four ideas in particular have caught the fancy
On currency swaps and why Gartman may be wrong in focusing on the adjusted monetary base
(republished from “A View from the Trenches“) Please, click here to read this article in pdf format:Â October 14 2012 Today, we were supposed to follow up on our last topic (how to shift to a commodity-based standard, with a
Did the risk-free rate move to Frankfurt?
(republished from “A View from the Trenches“, September 16th, 2012) Click here to read this article in pdf format: September 16 2012 Last week, after the German Bundesverfassungsgericht decided not deactivate the debt monetization program announced by Mr. Draghi a week earlier,
How Draghi opened the door to hyperinflation and denied the Fed an exit strategy
(republished from “A View from the Trenches“, September 10th, 2012) Click here to read this article in pdf format: September 10 2012 We finally heard the intentions of Mr. Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (“ECBâ€). We only need to
No news on the monetary front
(republished from “A View from the Trenches†(www.sibileau.com) Click here to read this article in pdf format: July 30 2012 Besides the 2012 Olympics (Go Canada!), last week, we had two main drivers of markets, at a macro level, of course.
More of the same…
Click here to read this article in pdf format:Â July 9 2012 Markets had a quiet week, with a holiday in Canada and another in the United States. We will therefore be brief today. In our last letter, we presented how
We’re getting closer…
As Easter approached, we began to see a timid sell off in US stocks (but not so timid in Europe or Canada), in corporate debt, and in Treasuries. Treasuries later in the week rallied, but if you ask, we would
The tide turned against the EMU
On Friday, out of the office and away from the screens (we are currently visiting the US capital), we were spared the enormous volatility in gold. Gold tried to break through the lows made since a public institution liquidated bullion



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